CER-ETH Research Seminar, Spring Term 2020

Everyone who is interested is cordially invited!

If you would like to receive our weekly invitation via e-mail, or if you have any other question, please contact Arnaud Goussebaïle.

Speakers

Pietro Peretto

Title: Through Scarcity to Prosperity: Toward A Theory of Sustainable Growth

Abstract: This paper integrates fertility choice and exhaustible resource dynamics in a tractable model of endogenous technological change. The analysis shows that, under the right conditions, the interdependence of population, resources and technology produces a transition from unsustainable resource-based growth to sustainable knowledge-based growth that consists of three phases: (1) an initial phase where agents build up the economy by exploiting exhaustible natural resources to support population growth; (2) an intermediate phase where agents turn on the Schumpeterian engine of endogenous innovation in response to population-led market expansion; (3) a terminal phase where growth becomes fully driven by knowledge accumulation and no longer requires growth of physical inputs. The last phase is crucial: not only economic growth no longer requires growth of physical inputs, but technological change also compensates for the exhaustion of the natural resource stock.

Reyer Gerlagh

Title: Fertility and Climate Change

Abstract: Historical data show that the increase in emissions is for only one-fourth attributable to the growth of emissions per person, whereas three-fourths are due to the growth of population. Thus family size is a key component of projections of future emissions. The striking evidence notwithstanding, population dynamics in climate-economy models is typically taken to follow exogenous trends. In this paper, we study the interactions between climate change and family planning. We develop an analytical model of endogenous fertility and embed it in a calibrated climate-economy model. The social optimum can be implemented through carbon pricing policies and policies aiming at smaller families. Population without family planning policies peaks at 12 billion, while optimal family planning brings the peak back to 9 billion. If family planning cannot be addressed as a separate policy instrument for climate policies, carbon taxes need to be lowered. Our results present family planning as an integral part of climate policies and quantify the costs of neglecting the interaction.

Aude Pommeret

Title: Energy transition with variable and intermittent renewable electricity generation

Abstract: We propose one of the fi rst dynamic models of the optimal transition from fossil fuels to renewables in electricity generation that takes into account the variability and intermittency of renewable energy as well as storage. This work sheds light on the extent to which variability and intermittency constitute a serious obstacle to energy transition, and to the role storage can play. The results of this model provide useful insights into the complexity of transitioning to clean energy, as well as the role climate policy plays in triggering both the growth of renewables and storage. A quantitative illustration for the case of the Spanish energy transition is provided.

Leo Ferraris

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Maik Schneider

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Alberto Martin

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Tore Ellingsen

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Olivia Mitchell

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Ottmar Edenhofer

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